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06 / Forecasting

Research preview

Two outcomes. One joint question.

A team winning and a game total going over are related questions. Explore the assumptions behind pricing them together.

Contract research. The experiments are not reliable enough for live joint pricing.

Illustration

Your next move

What will Spinda do?

Inspect a contract pair Understand the choices Open the API example Sign-in and API access requiredExplore the open weights Qwen3.8-Flash-Next-Decision ↗

Behind the demo

Kalshi sports pricing

This research examines how a decision model interprets sports contract definitions, and how that interpretation can be combined with probability calculations. Supplied marginal prices alone do not identify every joint probability.

Research preview

Current experiments are not reliable enough for live joint pricing. This page introduces the research; it does not provide live Kalshi quotes, trading signals, or return estimates.

  1. 01

    Define the outcomes

    Make the payoff conditions and supplied market information explicit.

  2. 02

    Inspect the relationship

    Distinguish logical overlap from dependence that needs more evidence.

  3. 03

    Check the calculation

    Compare estimates with known probabilities and retain the failures.

Make it your own

A state. A few choices.
Your next idea.

Inspect a contract pair